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  • June 12, 2017
    Quantum Equity Team

    In the month of May 2017, BSE Sensex gained 4.10% on a total return basis. In the first 5 months of 2017, Sensex has gained 17.30%. The midcap and smallcap stocks, after a strong show last month, have showed a diverging trend both ending with negative returns for the month. BSE Midcap index was down by 1.10% whereas BSE Smallcap index was down by 1.90%. For the first 5 months of this calendar year, BSE Midcap and BSE Smallcap index returns are 22.20% and 25.40% respectively. Among sectors, automobiles, information technology and consumer staples outperformed the benchmark, while healthcare, power and oil & gas underperformed the benchmark for the month.

    Market Performance At Glance
     Market Returns %
     May 2017January-April 2017
    S&P BSE SENSEX *4.1017.30
    S&P BSE MIDCAP *-1.1022.20
    S&P BSE SMALLCAP *-1.9025.40
    BEST PERFORMER SECTORSAutomobiles, Information Technology and Consumer Staples 
    LAGGARD SECTORSHealthcare, Power and Oil & Gas 
    * ON TOTAL RETURN BASIS
    * SOURCE-BLOOMBERG

    Flows continued to remain strong for the month as FIIs bought USD 1.2 billion worth of stocks in May. Domestic institutions on the other hand bought stocks worth USD 666 billion. Among DIIs, mutual funds bought USD 1.5 billion worth of stocks whereas insurance companies were net sellers for USD 834 million. Indian rupee marginally depreciated by 0.41% against the US dollar in April.

    Globally, the election win by Emmanuel Macron should give some breather for analysts forecasting doomsday for the European Union. What came as a surprise was not that he won but that the pollsters got the prediction right after the disaster of Brexit and Trump elections. 'Trumponomics' and his Tweets continue to dominate headlines but by and large it has been more rhetoric than any real policy action. Growth in the developed world still remains anemic. With high household debt to GDP, increase in interest rates will be extremely moderate and at a gradual pace. We expect the easy liquidity environment to continue to drive flows to fast growing countries like India as investors chase higher yields compared to what's available in their home markets.

    On the domestic front, India's Q4 GDP growth at 6.10% showed a sharp slowdown compared to previous quarters for the first time indicating that the demonitisation exercise had a negative impact on the economy. Our sense is even this number understates the real economic impact but given limitations of how the GDP data is calculated the true impact may never be captured in reported data. Q4 earnings for most corporates have been a mixed bag. However none of the results show any sign that India is a booming economy with 7.10% real GDP growth. Most company managements paint a very cautious view with very few showing any major appetite of large capacity expansion.

    GST rollout continues to dominate news flow as the government tries to categorize various goods and services into existing pre decided GST rate buckets. Near term market movement for most of the companies is being driven by market perception of winners and losers of the categorization exercise. Our interaction with most corporates suggests a lot of their wholesalers and retailers are simply not ready with the required IT infrastructure to entail a smooth transition. Hopefully the disruption is for a limited period and we get back to business as usually once each leg of the value chain gets accustomed to the new tax environment.

    Fund Outlook:

    Ignoring near term disruptions caused by demonitisation and GST, we remain optimistic about Indian equities in the long run. Weak commodities globally especially lower crude prices keep inflation under control and allow the government to use the savings generated to support the capex cycle. India remains a compelling long term structural story driven by the domestic Indian consumer and warrants an allocation in every long term investor's portfolio. The sharp rally over the recent months despite subdued earnings warrants caution in the near term. Investors should add moderately to equity at this point of time.

    Data Source: Bloomberg


    Disclaimer, Statutory Details & Risk Factors:

    The views expressed here in this article are for general information and reading purpose only and do not constitute any guidelines and recommendations on any course of action to be followed by the reader. The views are not meant to serve as a professional guide / investment advice / intended to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial product or instrument or mutual fund units for the reader. The article has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. Whilst no action has been solicited based upon the information provided herein, due care has been taken to ensure that the facts are accurate and views given are fair and reasonable as on date. Readers of this article should rely on information/data arising out of their own investigations and advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed decision before making any investments.

    Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks read all scheme related documents carefully.

    Please visit – www.QuantumMF.com to read scheme specific risk factors. Investors in the Scheme(s) are not being offered a guaranteed or assured rate of return and there can be no assurance that the schemes objective will be achieved and the NAV of the scheme(s) may go up and down depending upon the factors and forces affecting securities market. Investment in mutual fund units involves investment risk such as trading volumes, settlement risk, liquidity risk, default risk including possible loss of capital. Past performance of the sponsor / AMC / Mutual Fund does not indicate the future performance of the Scheme(s). Statutory Details: Quantum Mutual Fund (the Fund) has been constituted as a Trust under the Indian Trusts Act, 1882. Sponsor: Quantum Advisors Private Limited. (liability of Sponsor limited to Rs. 1,00,000/-) Trustee: Quantum Trustee Company Private Limited. Investment Manager: Quantum Asset Management Company Private Limited. The Sponsor, Trustee and Investment Manager are incorporated under the Companies Act, 1956.

  • June 12, 2017
    Quantum Fixed Income Team

    Indian bond markets ended the month of May on a positive note. The introduction of a new benchmark 10 year government bond paper has not only brought yields down but also seems to have aided sentiment and helped in breaching some key technical marks. The 10 year benchmark yield had ended the month of April at 6.95% semi-annual (s.a.), the new 10 year though ended the month of May at 6.66% semi-annual (s.a.). The new 10 year bond was issued in May at a coupon rate of 6.79% and since then has staged a strong rally. (Yields falling mean bond prices rise)

    We do not, of course, base our investment decision on technical analysis above and although the lower coupon of the new paper might have helped, there were enough fundamental reasons that had built up in the last two months to warrant a softening of rates and lower bond yields.

    First, global commodity prices have completely given up on the ‘Trump-Reflation’ trade. Most commodities, and now, including global food prices, have dropped quite significantly in dollar terms. Domestic Indian price pressures have also weakened considerably. The seasonal increase in fruits and vegetable prices in the summer did not happen this year leading to a marked fall in food price inflation. Core sector prices are increasing at a slower pace than anticipated as domestic demand pressures remain muted. The nominal and real appreciation of the Indian Rupee since the start of the year is providing further buffer against domestic inflation by keeping import prices cheaper.

    We believe that in the next 2-3 months CPI inflation reading will be below 3%, as also the full year trajectory should be closer to the RBI's target of 4% headline CPI inflation. The inflation trajectory is running at least 70-100 bps below RBI’s forecasts. To that, the expectation of a normal monsoon should help cap inflationary expectations. The government also seems to have done its part by pegging the GST (Goods and Services Tax) rates in such a manner so as to have almost no impact on headline CPI inflation.

    The RBI in its monetary policy review on June 7th did acknowledge these and has thus revised its inflation projections sharply downwards “in the range of 2.0-3.5 % in the first half of the year and 3.5-4.5 % in the second half”.

    The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI though left the key interest rate (Repo Rate) unchanged at 6.25%. Monsoon and GST uncertainties apart from global commodity prices were the reasons which made RBI move its monetary policy stance from accommodative to neutral in February. Those worries have significantly abated but the MPC still seems to have chosen to be careful and await more data. But that decision was not unanimous.

    The MPC voted 5-1 to remain on hold. This is the first time since the MPC was formed in October 2016 that a rate decision was not secured with a 6-0 vote. Dr. Dholakia, one of the 3 external members in the committee, voted against the decision and based on his earlier comments and on the overall context of today’s policy, we believe he would have favored a rate cut.

    The bond markets have also been correct in their anticipation of easy monetary policy and it is reflected in the falling bond yields since the introduction of the new 10 year benchmark bond in May. Although, not many expected a cut, but most expected a change in the tone of the RBI and were positioned as such and they seem to have been rewarded for it. The moment Dr. Viral Acharya (RBI Dy. Governor) mentioned “...and if the data so warrants, act for a broader accommodation through the interest rate policy” in the press conference, the bond market rallied further on the policy day as market participants priced in expectations of an eventual rate cut.

    Fund Outlook:

    A 25 bps cut matters a lot to bond traders but for the RBI and the broader economy it need not move the needle by much. The RBI needs to be convinced about the durability of the dis-inflation and confident enough to ease rates by at least 50 bps to help support the economy by lowering rates for instance on housing loans and corporate loans. We thus can expect rate cut going forward (maybe in August itself) but it won’t be large.

    Since the start of the year, we have believed that the best of the bond market gains are behind us and investors should lower return expectations from bond funds. The current move down in bond yields and the potential of some more on further rate cuts may lead to improved bond return performance than anticipated but investors may still consider it only as a tactical and a short term outcome.

    Data Source: Bloomberg


    Disclaimer, Statutory Details & Risk Factors:

    The views expressed here in this article are for general information and reading purpose only and do not constitute any guidelines and recommendations on any course of action to be followed by the reader. Quantum AMC / Quantum Mutual Fund is not guaranteeing / offering / communicating any indicative yield on investments made in the scheme(s). The views are not meant to serve as a professional guide / investment advice / intended to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial product or instrument or mutual fund units for the reader. The article has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. Whilst no action has been solicited based upon the information provided herein, due care has been taken to ensure that the facts are accurate and views given are fair and reasonable as on date. Readers of this article should rely on information/data arising out of their own investigations and advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed decision before making any investments.

    Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks read all scheme related documents carefully.

    Please visit – www.QuantumMF.com to read scheme specific risk factors. Investors in the Scheme(s) are not being offered a guaranteed or assured rate of return and there can be no assurance that the schemes objective will be achieved and the NAV of the scheme(s) may go up and down depending upon the factors and forces affecting securities market. Investment in mutual fund units involves investment risk such as trading volumes, settlement risk, liquidity risk, default risk including possible loss of capital. Past performance of the sponsor / AMC / Mutual Fund does not indicate the future performance of the Scheme(s). Statutory Details: Quantum Mutual Fund (the Fund) has been constituted as a Trust under the Indian Trusts Act, 1882. Sponsor: Quantum Advisors Private Limited. (liability of Sponsor limited to Rs. 1,00,000/-) Trustee: Quantum Trustee Company Private Limited. Investment Manager: Quantum Asset Management Company Private Limited. The Sponsor, Trustee and Investment Manager are incorporated under the Companies Act, 1956.

  • June 12, 2017
    Quantum Alternative Investments Team

    Although gold prices ended nearly flat, gold went through a wild downward swing and then a sharp reversal. As the U.S. rate hike seemed a near certainty, it caused gold prices to plummet towards the psychological levels of $1200 an ounce. But, as Trump struggled through the biggest political crisis of his presidency after a series of damaging revelations including his abrupt sacking of the former FBI director; the reflation trade was hit hard. This led to some chaos in asset markets, benefitting gold the most by helping it recover most of the fall seen earlier during the month. Gold managed to close almost unchanged at $1,268.94 an ounce (approximately INR 8,627.92), a marginal gain of 0.05%.

    Recent rhetoric by members of the Federal Reserve contained a hawkish verbiage, expressing the high probability of an interest rate hike being implemented during the June minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Although it is widely anticipated that a rate hike will be announced at next month’s meeting, it is the balance sheet reduction of the Fed’s assets that has garnered extensive attention. In the minutes released last month, market participants got their first real clues as to the structure of this asset liquidation. It is referred to a stealth rate hike because balance sheet liquidation by the Federal Reserve would have the same net effect as the raising of interest rates. The fact of the matter is the liquidation of balance sheet assets, which currently sits at $4.5 trillion, has the potential to move markets and change the status quo to a much greater extent than the anticipated rate hike next month. The Fed cannot raise rates, aggressively, without harming the U.S. economy: U.S. debt levels remain ‘astronomically high’.

    Reflationary forces are clearly weakening. Reflation started to attract the attention of investors at the end of 2016 and was based on two pillars: Trump's presidency, i.e. rising expectations about the fiscal stimulus provided by the new president, and accelerating global inflation and economic growth. As a result, interest rates surged, while the price of gold plunged. The problem is that both drivers of reflation trade have weakened recently. The failure of Trump to repeal and replace Obamacare undermined the market's confidence in a quick and smooth implementation of the new administration’s pro-growth agenda. And now, with loss of political capital on account of several allegations that Trump faces, there’s concern that the administration won’t be able to implement its economic agenda now. Also, if you look at inflationary trends in the U.S. and Eurozone, there is indeed a remarkable slowdown.

    Wall Street really needs to sustain the illusion of economic viability--a massive corporate tax cut that is not offset by eliminating deductions or reduced spending. After all, the market is in a desperate need of a reason to justify these valuations. As long as a tax cut could be on the way and global central banks keep printing money at a record pace, the stretched valuations on the equity side may continue but could come under some serious trouble for a lack of follow through.

    Fund Outlook:

    The market consensus remains in place for another Fed rate hike in June. The Fed is still optimistic on the U.S. economy and termed the slowdown in GDP growth in the first quarter as transitory. Their view is supported by Atlanta Fed GDPNow model that forecasts a GDP growth of 3.8% QoQ SAAR in 2017, implying 2.6% YoY growth. However the auto, retail sales and the recent jobs and earnings numbers haven’t been encouraging and thus pose a concern. It’s highly likely that the Fed will and should go ahead with increasing rates in the June meeting but the above factors may play on their mind and hence may wait for the second quarter GDP numbers to validate their views. If the Fed keep rates unchanged in June, and the next rate hike is pushed back to September; then this fizzles out any expectations for three rate hikes this year, the dollar could weaken in coming months, and gold prices could continue to trend higher as they did in 2016.

    We have argued that the Fed is and continues to be 'behind the curve', i.e. is raising rates more slowly than any inflationary pressures that are building. We believe the Fed is petrified that it might have to go back to quantitative easing when the next recession comes and, as a result, has been very slow in raising rates. Indeed, we believe the Fed will only raise rates if the market delivers a rate hike on a silver platter, i.e. the markets are “behaving”.

    Trump faces the biggest crisis of his presidency after a series of damaging revelations, including reports that he pressed FBI Director James Comey to drop a probe into former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn. As a fall out of several allegations, there’s concern that the administration won’t be able to implement its economic agenda now. Given there exists significant divisions among Republicans, further loss of political capital makes it complicated. However, Republicans in Congress, in order to show real progress on the tax cuts before the midterm Congressional elections due in November 2018, may be forced to some agreement. However, the current tax changes being proposed by the President will morph over time and will be significantly watered down if it is ever to become law. Therefore, since the final plan will be significantly diluted from the proposed form, its effect on the economy and for equity prices will be extremely attenuated. This means the current ebullience on Wall Street is about as far offside as possible.

    After the U.S. elections, we believe the price of gold came down as the market priced in higher real interest rates in anticipation of lower regulations. We indicated that this euphoria will cede to realism, meaning that regulations might not be cut quite as much. We may be at the cusp of such a turning point where actual reality takes over existing euphoria. Gold's major drivers going forward will be global trade wars, growing geopolitical stress, global debt concerns and central-bank policies regarding money creation and currency valuation targets.

    The world is in great disequilibrium, both with respect to the global economy and geopolitics as well. The fallout of unstable global geopolitics seems to now cap the downsides in gold. Given the macroeconomic picture, gold will be a useful portfolio diversification tool, thereby helping you to reduce overall portfolio risk.

    Source: The World Gold Council, Bloomberg


    Disclaimer, Statutory Details & Risk Factors:

    The views expressed here in this article are for general information and reading purpose only and do not constitute any guidelines and recommendations on any course of action to be followed by the reader. The views are not meant to serve as a professional guide / investment advice / intended to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial product or instrument or mutual fund units for the reader. The article has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. Whilst no action has been solicited based upon the information provided herein, due care has been taken to ensure that the facts are accurate and views given are fair and reasonable as on date. Readers of this article should rely on information/data arising out of their own investigations and advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed decision before making any investments.

    Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks read all scheme related documents carefully.

    Please visit – www.QuantumMF.com to read scheme specific risk factors. Investors in the Scheme(s) are not being offered a guaranteed or assured rate of return and there can be no assurance that the schemes objective will be achieved and the NAV of the scheme(s) may go up and down depending upon the factors and forces affecting securities market. Investment in mutual fund units involves investment risk such as trading volumes, settlement risk, liquidity risk, default risk including possible loss of capital. Past performance of the sponsor / AMC / Mutual Fund does not indicate the future performance of the Scheme(s). Statutory Details: Quantum Mutual Fund (the Fund) has been constituted as a Trust under the Indian Trusts Act, 1882. Sponsor: Quantum Advisors Private Limited. (liability of Sponsor limited to Rs. 1,00,000/-) Trustee: Quantum Trustee Company Private Limited. Investment Manager: Quantum Asset Management Company Private Limited. The Sponsor, Trustee and Investment Manager are incorporated under the Companies Act, 1956.

  • June 20, 2017

    Quantum Mutual Fund – Your Mitra (friend) Indeed

    Rohit comes from a closely knit family. A close friend and a CA by profession, he is well settled in his career and with his finances. But when his father passed away, the fabric binding the family started to come apart at the seams over the question of inheritance. As Rohit shared his troubles with me, I couldn’t help but reflect that perhaps his situation might resonate with that of many a household that once lived amicably. Therefore while estate planning becomes a must for all of us to ensure that the family remains as closely knit as it was; mutual funds and especially Quantum, can help investors ensure that their minds and those of their families are at peace, even should the worst occur.

    How can Quantum help?

    The last thing you want is to fight with your family over the legacy that a loved one leaves behind him/her. Through various facilities that we offer our investors, it becomes that much simpler to ensure that those we leave behind us, when we make our journey, do not quarrel amongst themselves. Therefore the Nomination facility gains utmost importance.

    What is the Nomination facility?

    Similar to the practice as in bank accounts, De-mat accounts and other financial investment products; one can register a nominee for one’s mutual fund investments. The Nomination facility offered by Quantum Mutual Fund enables a unit holder to nominate an individual, who can claim the units, post the unfortunate demise of the unit holder.

    Nomination is now mandatory for new folios opened by an individual, especially with single holding. Even those investors who do not wish to nominate must sign separately confirming their intention to not appoint a nominee. An investor can nominate any person as a nominee to whom his/her Mutual fund units will be transferred on his/her demise.

    Benefits of having a Nominee

    The registration of nomination will facilitate easy transfer of funds to the nominee on the demise of the investor. In absence of a nominee, a claimant would have to produce a host of documents like a Will, Legal Heir Certificate, No Objection Certificate from other legal heirs etc. to get the units transferred in his/her name.

    The idea is to ensure that the transmission of investments to the nominee is a smooth and hassle free process.

    Registering a Nominee

    Registering a nominee for one’s investment is very simple and can be done easily on the www.QuantumAMC.com website. For details on how to register a nominee for your folio and other details, click here.

    One can also register a nominee offline.

    In case, for whatever reason, the investor wishes to change the nominee, then that facility is also available on the www.QuantumAMC.com website.

    Register Your Mitra with Quantum

    Quantum has introduced the Q-Mitra facility which allows you as the primary holder in the folio, to authorize a self-appointed person(s) to act on your behalf. The transaction will be initiated only by you, the investor and the other designated person will be approached only for verification/confirmation. The verification/confirmation call to Q-Mitra will be for any of the investor details also.

    The benefit of this facility is that your designated Q-Mitra can be contacted by Quantum Mutual Fund only if you are not contactable or reachable for any verification/confirmation through call/email. Post successful registration of Q-Mitra, he/she will be authorized to verify/confirm transactions done by you on your behalf over the call/email received from our Customer Care Team. In case you are not contactable, these calls as mentioned above will be made to the registered Q-Mitra.

    Therefore, your spouse or a family member that you trust, will have an idea of your investments and will also know whom to contact in Quantum in case they need to get in touch with us.

    What Else Can One Do?

    It is very important for the investor to ensure safety and the security of investments, irrespective of the need to nominate.

    The world today is battling with the menace of terrorism and the cyber world is no different. The threats to data security will thus only increase as hackers searching to cause mayhem and disruption continue to target websites to hack into sensitive data and use it for their own nefarious purposes.

    Thus, data security is imperative for us so that we ensure that we are updated with the latest trends in internet security and deploy them on our websites for the protection of your data. Our websites are regularly audited from a security perspective and we spend a substantial sum every year to ensure that we are updated with the latest tools to prevent data leakage and disruption. As part of the footer of the website, you will see:


    These are cyber security certificates that showcase our commitment to cyber security as we are certified by Trust Active as being a completely secure website.

    Quantum’s commitment does not end only with website security. We have a holistic, 360 degree approach to security. We are an ISO/IEC 27001:2013 certified company. This is an information security standard that was published by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) and is a specification for an Information Security Management System (ISMS). Organizations that meet the standard may be certified compliant by an independent and accredited certification body on successful completion of a formal compliance audit.

    Therefore you can be rest assured that your data with us is safe and secure.

    Making the Investor’s Life Simpler

    Other than the above mentioned initiatives, we, at Quantum, simply believe in making the investing experience with us as seamless and as hassle free as possible.

    One small example of that is the Business Reply Envelope (BRE) facility. In order to serve you better, we have the BRE facility which will make it easier for you to invest and connect with us - free of charge!!

    All you need to do is: download the Business Reply Envelope from our website, fill it in and mail it to us at ZERO cost to you.

    You can use the BRE to send application forms, queries, suggestions and feedback without bearing any charges.

    Keeping this simplicity and doing what’s best for the customer in mind, we have ensured that the investor is able to transact with us, whether sitting dedicatedly in front of his/her system or when on the go.

    As an investor, you can transact by sending us a simple email on Transact@QuantumAMC.com or by sending us a message through WhatsApp or Hike! Click here to know more about other ways in which you can transact with us.

    Our Customer Relations team is happy to answer any queries you may have on Nomination and other facilities that we offer our investors. Do write to us on Customercare@QuantumAMC.com and we will be happy to answer them for you.

    Taking care, not only of your investments, but security of your data and continuing to make your investing life simpler too!


    Disclaimer, Statutory Details & Risk Factors:

    The views expressed here in this article are for general information and reading purpose only and do not constitute any guidelines and recommendations on any course of action to be followed by the reader. The views are not meant to serve as a professional guide / investment advice / intended to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial product or instrument or mutual fund units for the reader. The article has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. Whilst no action has been solicited based upon the information provided herein, due care has been taken to ensure that the facts are accurate and views given are fair and reasonable as on date. Readers of this article should rely on information/data arising out of their own investigations and advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed decision before making any investments.

    Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks read all scheme related documents carefully.

    Please visit – www.QuantumMF.com to read scheme specific risk factors. Investors in the Scheme(s) are not being offered a guaranteed or assured rate of return and there can be no assurance that the schemes objective will be achieved and the NAV of the scheme(s) may go up and down depending upon the factors and forces affecting securities market. Investment in mutual fund units involves investment risk such as trading volumes, settlement risk, liquidity risk, default risk including possible loss of capital. Past performance of the sponsor / AMC / Mutual Fund does not indicate the future performance of the Scheme(s). Statutory Details: Quantum Mutual Fund (the Fund) has been constituted as a Trust under the Indian Trusts Act, 1882. Sponsor: Quantum Advisors Private Limited. (liability of Sponsor limited to Rs. 1,00,000/-) Trustee: Quantum Trustee Company Private Limited. Investment Manager: Quantum Asset Management Company Private Limited. The Sponsor, Trustee and Investment Manager are incorporated under the Companies Act, 1956.

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